College basketball statistical guru Ken Pomeroy gives Kentucky a 59.3 percent chance to advance to the Southeastern Conference Tournament semifinals, a 26.9 percent chance to advance to the final and a 13.2 percent chance to win the SEC tourney that starts Wednesday in St. Louis.
Kentucky has a double-bye into Friday’s quarterfinals and will open against either Georgia, Vanderbilt or Missouri, which has the first-round bye.
Kentucky had won four straight games until coach John Calipari said it went to Florida and “got rocked” on Saturday. However, the coach is ready to put that game behind the Cats and move on.
“We’re going into the tournament 4-1 in our last five (games). I look at it and say we got work to do this week,” Calipari said.
He planned an individual instruction day on Monday before resuming scrimmages Tuesday and Wednesday where he said the team was “going to get after each other” to get back to where it was during it’s four-game win streak when the Cats won every game by double digits.
However, Calipari and other SEC coaches know there is not a prohibitive favorite in the league that saw Auburn and Tennessee share first place in the league with 13-5 records. Calipari said the four teams — Mississippi, South Carolina, Vanderbilt and Georgia — playing in the two Wednesday night games are capable of beating any league team.
“You saw Mississippi and how they played with us, and you know South Carolina – shoot they beat us. And Vandy had a chance to beat us twice and is playing pretty good basketball. Basically Georgia had the last two games won, and at the very end of the game, the other team makes plays,” Calipari said.
“I would say the advantage would go to both Auburn and Tennessee. Tennessee — you got to remember — Tennessee lost their first two games and we had them down 10 or 12 in the first half of their third game, and (coach) Rick (Barnes) got that team right. So I think both Tennessee and Auburn will have the advantage, but the rest of us, you know, you’re just going to fight like heck and see what happens.”
For Kentucky to fight, it has to get back to passing the basketball. In the four-game win streak, it averaged 15.5 assists per game. In Saturday’s loss at Florida, it had six assists. Kentucky averaged 87.8 points per game in the win streak before getting just 67 at Florida — and many came after UK had fallen behind by 23 points.
Mississippi State coach Ben Howland says the tournament is more “wide open” than it has been for a long time. The league lacks a dominant team, but has a bunch of teams that have beaten up on each other all season.
“Anybody can beat anybody on a given day. Tennessee is the hottest team in the league and playing the best of anybody,” Howland said. “Missouri, being in its home state will be an added advantage. Texas A&M has won three in a row and has lot of momentum. And obviously never discount the fact Kentucky has had the most success of any team in the SEC. Lot of teams with a chance to come out of this as the champion.”
This is the first time the SEC tourney has been played in St. Louis — it returns to Nashville next year. Vanderbilt coach Bryce Drew says fans “love basketball” in St. Louis.
“With Missouri being right down the road, I would expect their games to be sold out. I think it will be a great environment. Basketball is very big there. You can’t underestimate the Missouri crowd or Michael Porter’s impact,” Drew said.
Michael Porter Jr. was the top-ranked recruit in the 2018 class. He hurt his back early in Missouri’s first game and has not played since then. The 6-9 Porter could play in the SEC tourney and if Missouri wins its first game, that would likely mean he would also play on Friday against Kentucky. Missouri and Kentucky split regular-season games.
“Right now, they’re playing well. You add Porter to that, all of the sudden they’ve become very, very dangerous,” Calipari said.
Kentucky normally has a big advantage with more fans than any other team in the SEC tourney. Kentucky played in the Scottrade Center in St. Louis in the 2014 NCAA Tournament when it upset No. 1 seed Wichita State in the second round on a dramatic 3-pointer by Aaron Harrison.
“It is a great place for a tournament. I think it’ll be fine. Our fans I would expect them – it’s much easier, obviously, Atlanta and Nashville for our fans and maybe a lot of our league fans,” Calipari said Monday. “But, I think right now the difference is every team walking in here – even if I’m Mississippi right now, knowing how they played against us, knowing how those guards will take 30 3’s – I’m thinking we’ve got a chance.
“If I’m Vanderbilt, if I’m Georgia, if I’m South Carolina – Mississippi State has played well all year. You’re looking up and down the line, I think all 14 teams think and their fans — we can make a run. So, I’m going to be surprised if there are not a lot of fans from a lot of schools, not just Kentucky, at this tournament.”
Blue Ribbon College Basketball Editor Chris Dortch covers the SEC on a regular basis. He thinks Kentucky can still win the tournament if the players will buy-in again to what Calipari is telling them and if Calipari continues to adapt to his personnel as he has been forced to do this year.
“Cal doesn’t have hard and fast rules about how his teams will play and he’s proven that this year,” Dortch said. “I would not say he has forsaken defense but Cal finally admitted he did not have lockdown guys on defense and this was not one of his best defensive teams but he did have stallions that can run and score. He turned them loose.
“They lost at Florida, but when they are scoring in transition and attacking the rim for score, fouls or to create an open shot for a teammate, they can still beat anybody. So they are definitely good enough to win this tournament.”
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Calipari often says the tournament means more to UK fans than it does him. However, Kentucky has won the SEC Tournament in five of Calipari’s eight season, including the last three. Two other times the Cats reached the title game. The only one of his teams not to make the SEC tourney final was the 2013 NIT team.
Kentucky is 19-3 overall at the SEC Tournament under Calipari and 12 of the 19 wins, including nine of its last 11, have come by double digits.
(STORY BY LARRY VAUGHT)