Since December of 2017, Saturday of this week has been a date many Kentucky fans have had marked on their calendar. The heart of the weekend will provide a matchup between the Kentucky Wildcats and North Carolina Tar Heels in the CBS Sports Classic in Chicago, IL.
The Tar Heels, who are ranked ninth in the country, are sizable favorites over the 19th-ranked Wildcats. Both teams have two losses, with Kentucky’s coming in blowout fashion against second-seeded Duke in the season opener as well as an overtime loss to Seton Hall in the Citi Hoops Classic. North Carolina’s two came at fourth-seeded Michigan and a late heartbreaker at Texas.
So why is North Carolina a two thirds favorite (66.4% chance of victory according to ESPN’s BPI) to beat Kentucky?
Roy Williams and his club have wins over 17th-ranked UCLA and most recently eighth-ranked Gonzaga. John Calipari’s team, however, has yet to post a top-25 win this season. Granted, Kentucky has faced only one top-25 team (Duke). However, they haven’t exactly beaten up on lesser competition.
The Wildcats have mostly faced turmoil over their first 10 games, as sophomore point guard Quade Green has left the team and red shirt freshman Jemarl Baker still isn’t receiving a considerable amount of minutes.
Kentucky is also young in the backcourt (four freshman) and thin on the wing (two freshman). Despite youth at those positions, the Wildcats do boast one of the more powerful, veteran front courts in the country. Sophomore PJ Washington and graduate transfer Reid Travis have mostly carried the Wildcats to start the season.
On Saturday, Kentucky will need an all-out effort from the two bigs with hopes of an upset. An official line has yet to be set, but North Carolina’s fourth-ranked scoring offense is assumed to present terrors for Kentucky’s (or lack their of) defense.
Specifically, the Tar Heels are shooting better than 37% from behind the arc while anyone not named Keldon Johnson on Kentucky is struggling to find the bottom of the net.
An ideal formula for the Wildcats will be to play inside-out with the hopes of Tyler Herro catching fire from downtown. An all-around performance from Johnson would also be suitable. Overall, Kentucky will need efficient offense and a hard-nosed mentality on the defensive side of the ball.
While a Wildcats win seems to be an up-hill battle, expect Calipari’s Wildcats to show up and play with a passion strong enough to potentially get them over the hump.